Ask Kyle Market outlook
I get asked whether Vancouver is about to crash almost every week. Here’s what I’ve actually said, month by month, and what I’d do about it on either side of the table.
8 answers from 8 of my videos
No. When I went through it in October 2026, my call was that the bubble is not popping, and it’s not going to deflate completely either. I expected prices to keep drifting lower for a while, then a flat market for quite some time, and then a housing shortfall to start tightening things up several years out. If inventory keeps building through the winter the drift gets deeper and longer, and if buyers come back faster, my timeline is too long.
A pop needs stretched pricing and a lot of people forced to sell at once into a market with nobody on the other side. What I saw in October 2026 was prices coming down steadily, which hurts if it’s your number drifting, but every step down lets pressure out slowly instead of all at once. True price collapses require forced selling, and in April 2026 I pointed out how many Vancouver owners have no mortgage at all. They can rent it out, draw out equity or wait.
No, I see it as a slowdown, not a collapse. When I covered it in January 2026, Statistics Canada had reported the population contracting in a quarter, and the people leaving were mostly renters, so rental demand was the first domino to fall. As I said then, this is not a crash story, it’s a normalization story driven by demographics, supply and policy. It rewards patient, selective buyers and sellers who price for today’s buyer.
0:15Hear me say it at 0:15The Canadian Population CRISIS Will Break The Vancouver Housing MarketJanuary 2026 · 7:51 long2:08Hear me say it at 2:08The Canadian Population CRISIS Will Break The Vancouver Housing MarketJanuary 2026 · 7:51 long7:08Hear me say it at 7:08The Canadian Population CRISIS Will Break The Vancouver Housing MarketJanuary 2026 · 7:51 longThe price chart is the last thing to move, so I watch other things. In August 2026 the signal I was watching closest was developer behaviour: whether presale launches for owners come back before rental projects do, because developers betting real capital on selling to owners again is a hard signal to fake. In October 2026 I added unsold new inventory and the Bank of Canada’s rate decisions to the list. Watch what gets built, not what gets said.
1:25Hear me say it at 1:25The BC Real Estate Crash Is Not Over Yet | (HERE'S WHY)August 2026 · 8:31 long7:28Hear me say it at 7:28The BC Real Estate Crash Is Not Over Yet | (HERE'S WHY)August 2026 · 8:31 long
11:40Hear me say it at 11:40The Vancouver Real Estate Market Is About To BURSTOctober 2026 · 12:43 long
Free accountThe Kyle Mark ReportWhat’s actually moving in your part of the city, month by month, in plain words.Open the Report →In most cases, no. In December 2025 I told sellers waiting for spring or for a magical buyer that they’d be losing, because with this much selection a buyer just goes somewhere else unless you make it worth their while. Price for the market that exists right now, not the one you’re hoping for. Waiting on a change you can’t control usually costs more than it returns.
No. When I zoomed out in February 2026, the owners in trouble were mostly people who bought within the last five or six years. If you’ve owned for 10, 15 or 20 years, you’ve done very well with your asset. Zoom out far enough and Vancouver’s dips look like temporary interruptions inside a very long cycle.
6:40Hear me say it at 6:40Will The Vancouver Real Estate Market Ever Recover?February 2026 · 11:21 long6:58Hear me say it at 6:58Will The Vancouver Real Estate Market Ever Recover?February 2026 · 11:21 long0:45Hear me say it at 0:45Will The Vancouver Real Estate Market Ever Recover?February 2026 · 11:21 longNot soon, but not never. In October 2026 I called 2027 a year of adjustment, with fewer distressed sellers as the last of the borrowers who locked in at pandemic-era rates work through their renewals. The bigger story is supply: CMHC’s fall 2026 housing supply report warned that Canada risks underbuilding during the soft market and coming up further short when demand returns. I think that shortfall starts to matter again in maybe four to six years.
Both, depending on where you stand. When I broke the city down in July 2026, Vancouver wasn’t one market, it was five, and in the same month I was writing into multiple offers while other segments gave buyers real leverage. In October 2026 I said I could find you extreme buyer conditions and extreme seller conditions in different pockets. Know which lane you’re in before you pick a strategy, and the Kyle Mark Report (free account) breaks it down month by month.
12:35Hear me say it at 12:35The Vancouver Housing Market Has Just SHIFTED (HERE'S WHY)July 2026 · 12:52 long11:33Hear me say it at 11:33The Vancouver Real Estate Market Is About To BURSTOctober 2026 · 12:43 longGo deeperWhere to buy in Vancouver
Keep going
Didn’t see yours?
If your question is about your own home or your own contract, the honest answer depends on the paperwork. Bring it to me and I’ll tell you what I see.
