Toronto's Real Estate Market Crash: Is Vancouver Next?

Written in November 2025. Some details have changed since, so check current numbers before you act on this.

Is Vancouver next after Toronto’s crash? Toronto’s condo market is tanking, but Vancouver isn’t necessarily following, at least not the same way. In fact, there are cracks opening in our market that you need to see, understand, and use to your advantage (before everyone else figures it out).

Is Toronto’s real estate market really crashing?

• Toronto condo prices are down ~20% since peak, Real Estate Magazine reported, as of this post in November 2025.
• The glut is brutal, units built and sitting empty, overbuilds, speculative projects failing. Maclean’s ran a long read on the condo market crash.
• That domino effect: weak economy → buyers pull back → prices sag → financing gets tighter → more pullback. Classic correction spiral.

But here’s the kicker: this isn’t a 100% template for Vancouver. Markets bleed, but not always the same wounds.

Is Vancouver next? Not crash-proof, but better hedged

• Condo sales in Vancouver are down (37% in one period), and >2,000 units are sitting unsold, Canadian Mortgage Professional reported, as of this post in November 2025.
• Yet, Toronto’s condo downturn is far steeper (purchase activity down 75% in some reports), the same Canadian Mortgage Professional piece said.
• Our supply surge is real: new listings up, inventory piling in neighborhoods that used to move fast.
• Mortgage renewals hit hardest in 2025 to 2026 may force some listings. I walk through who’s exposed at renewal in a separate post.

We’re not bulletproof, but we don’t have Toronto’s collapse severity yet.

Why did Vancouver hold up better than Toronto?

I went through a Financial Post article from March 11, 2025 on camera, which called Vancouver’s market on firmer footing than Toronto’s heading into the tariff turbulence. An economist at TD Bank told the Post that over the prior 3 months, Vancouver-area home sales were up 21% from a year earlier, against 8% in Toronto. Prices were down 6% on average and 4% on the benchmark from their pandemic peaks in Vancouver, while Toronto’s had fallen 15%. Condo sales in Toronto were down 12% that January from a year earlier, while Vancouver’s climbed 14%.

Those numbers are from early 2025, so check the current picture before you lean on them. The reason the economist gave is the part that lasts. B.C. brought in cooling measures in 2018 and 2019, including foreign buyer tax hikes and higher property taxes, so prices here were already declining before COVID. Affordability didn’t deteriorate as much as it did in Toronto, where prices blasted off after the pandemic and had further to fall once rates rose.

I agree with that. Our values have been flat for years, and that flat stretch has insulated us. People kept waiting for a bubble to pop here, and it hasn’t popped the way they expected.

Tariffs are the other difference. Vancouver isn’t nearly as affected as many major Canadian cities. Back east it’s a different story. I was working with a Toronto buyer who was planning a move here, and a job loss tied to the tariffs has put that purchase on hold.

Where is the real pain in Vancouver right now?

Pre-construction. A lot of people who bought pre-sales a couple of years ago are completing now and can’t make it work with higher rates. They’re selling well below market value to get out of a bad situation. I saw it in a luxury building downtown that was only a couple of years old. A few fire sales inside the building pulled that building’s values far below comparable ones nearby. Great news for the buyer in that building, and painful for the owner.

If your condo doesn’t appraise at what you agreed to pay, you still have an obligation to complete, and the mortgage may not cover the gap. That can create a real mess. Developers can see it as well, and later phases of some downtown projects have come out well under the pricing that earlier buyers paid.

Why does the supply pipeline change the story?

What makes me more optimistic about the next few years than the current headlines. New condo sales have fallen so hard in both cities that condo starts are falling with them. Condos take 3 to 6 years from rezoning to move-in, so whatever doesn’t start today shows up as a shortage later. Toronto stays well supplied in the near term, then gets much thinner.

In Vancouver, what’s under construction leans heavily toward condos and purpose-built rentals, while single family starts have fallen off a cliff. With the province’s land use changes, those homes are being pulled down for duplexes and multiplexes, and nobody’s replacing them. If you can hold on to a detached property, I think that’s a very good position to be in. Cycles are cyclical, and the most money gets made and lost when people forget that. Demand won’t stay this low forever.

What should Vancouver buyers, sellers and investors do now?

If you’re buying:

• Leverage the softening demand, more negotiating power, fewer bidding wars. My buyer blueprint shows how I run it.
• Pick your dives, focus on well-located, quality product (not overbuilt “investor units”).
• Lock timing, if mortgage rates drop later in 2025, you’ll want to be in.

If you’re selling:

• Don’t overprice, you’ll get ignored. The Kyle Mark Report shows the real numbers for your area, and the seller blueprint shows how I’d price it.
• Front-load your prep, curb appeal, staging, pricing, get eyes early.
• Time with data, if listings flood mid‑2025, selling before that wave gives you an edge.

If you’re investing:

• Avoid speculative condos not ready for absorption.
• Focus on cash flow + resilience, not just capital gains.

Study exit paths, if your holding period overlaps the “soft zone,” you’ll want liquidity.

🧠 Kyle’s Inside Edge: Why I’m Watching This Differently

I’m not just reading charts, I talk to lenders, I see which projects are stalling, which units get pulled, which builders regroup or fold. I’m plugged into the pipeline, and I know where Vancouver is more exposed (condos, renewals) and where it’s likely to hold (core low-rise, premium neighborhoods).

When Toronto nose-dives, everyone looks west. But I know which pockets will crack first, and which spots will stay tight. I can protect your downside and help you pounce.

📞 Your Move Now

Markets shift fast. If you wait until everyone sees the crash, you’ve lost. Let me show you where your opportunity is right now, whether buying, selling, or repositioning.

Book your 30-minute strategy call now, let’s map your next move. Time’s not waiting.